I make portfolio decisions on probabilities, and the balance of evidence has continued to move in favor of the major-low thesis. Although it remains early, the market has delivered enough confirmation since my aggressive mid-July deployment to justify further changes to the portfolio. Bitcoin is trading near $78,000, more than 10% above its 160-day and 200-day moving averages. The June low remains intact, but the more important development is the leadership emerging from it. Bitcoin still needs to clear a dense resistance cluster between $80,000 and $85,000, including the ETF cost basis, six-month high, former support, long-term holder cost basis, and weekly Trend Chameleon bullish threshold — levels I have discussed in recent reports. I do not expect Bitcoin to clear that range immediately, although doing so would materially strengthen the bullish case. Funding rates are at their highest since the ETF launch, while altcoin open interest has exploded. The positioning flip was aggressive, leaving me tactically cautious in the short term.

RV 63

Inflection — why the major low is now my base case

Jamie Coutts26 August 2026

Since the February 6 capitulation low, I've been arguing that Bitcoin was in the accumulation or value zone, with the pieces slowly falling into place for a major low sometime in Q2 but likely Q3. My previous work showed that Bitcoin did not need global liquidity to bottom first. What mattered was whether the market could absorb the tightening and begin to change character as pressure from liquidity, the dollar, and real rates started to ease. Last week, the US Treasury provided a partial answer on the policy side, while Bitcoin delivered a price move that looks like the real thing. It finished up 22%, its best week in more than two years, and is trading around $79,000 as I write this.

RV 62

Bitcoin at the Break — volatility compression, liquidity and the next regime

Jamie CouttsAugust 13, 2026

I have not materially added to Bitcoin since buying near the bottom in 2022 & Q1 23, even though a growing number of the network, valuation, positioning and capitulation measures I follow have moved back into what I consider the value zone since February this year. The reason is simple: the technicals and the macro backdrop have still not given me enough permission. Real yields remain restrictive, the dollar is unresolved, and the global liquidity impulse is fading even as more claims compete for balance-sheet capacity. And now, volatility has collapsed as well. On August 11th, 90-day realized volatility was 34.63%, only the 8th percentile of its trailing four-year history. The 180-day close range was at the 12th percentile, while DVOL was around the 5th percentile. Bitcoin has entered a genuinely unusual state.

RV 61

Not Out of the Woods

Jamie CouttsJuly 31, 2026

Bitcoin may have broken first, but it has not yet given the all-clear. The Helios Global Liquidity Index reached a record $146.7 trillion on 28 July, yet its 12-month growth rate has slowed from +8.51% in March to +5.24%, while six-month growth has fallen to +1.03%. Bitcoin peaked in Q4 2025 and remained weak while the Nasdaq and Asia’s technology-heavy equity markets held up. Some of that divergence was clearly crypto-specific, but the macro backdrop has since moved in the same direction.

RV 48

Crypto Crash: Downside Exhaustion Meets Long-Term Opportunity. Selectivity and Patience Required.

Jamie CouttsFebruary 13, 2026

Bitcoin is known for its fat tails — nerd-speak for vicious moves to the downside and explosive moves to the upside. Last week was the former: a 3.5 sigma drawdown, one of the most violent selloffs in Bitcoin’s history.